There is a general fact with respect to the volatility and price fluctuation of cryptocurrencies. It has been observed over the years that Bitcoin (BTC) has an intermittent bull and bearish runs both with an undefined time frame. Careful attention to events in the crypto sphere shows that about 60% of the Bitcoin in circulation has not moved over a year. This data emanates from Glassnode and is further corroborated by Look Into Bitcoin, an analytical Bitcoin data web portal. The data as shown in a chart called ‘Hodl waves’ shows that there is a likelihood of a bull run with this Hodl’ing behavior shown by Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Price Fluctuation History and Possible Results of BTC Hodl’ing
Bitcoin is by far the largest traded digital currency and the largest of all the cryptocurrencies by market cap. The coin is known to show periods of high price value as well as low price tags which invariably impact other altcoins. Philip Swift turned to Twitter to shares his observations.
60% of all bitcoin has not moved on the blockchain for at least 1 year. This is an indication of significant hodl'ing.
— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) May 26, 2020
According to Swift, the hodl’ing experience of Bitcoin in 2016 saw Bitcoin’s price attain its all-time high of $19,783.06. If a similar bull run is recorded with this current hodl’ing experience, then investors must prepare for another historic increase in the value of Bitcoin.
Effect of Bitcoin 3rd Halving
Bitcoin halving refers to a programmed event in the history of Bitcoin when the reward for miners will be slashed by 50%. This inflationary control measure is usually succeeded by a price increase as new units are added to the block which is technically harder to mine. As reported by Forbes, events pre and post halving in times past have supported this increased price narrative. James Todaro, head of research at TradeBlock, also projected the breakeven point of Bitcoin after the halving to within $12,000 to $15,000 per BTC. While current market trends peg the price of BTC at $9,548.54 (Down), there is a likelihood of a massive price surge when the effects of hodl’ing and halving work in unison.
Implications for Investors
Despite the many uncertainties surrounding BTC and altcoins, investments targeting the long term may be wise discounting individual tolerance to risk. If the BTC behaves in response to analyst’s speculations, then investors may benefit in the longer term. Nonetheless, investments may not conform to popular analysis and projections in which case, investors will have to pay attention to personal discretions.